The Dog Days Are Over 🐶 Volume Arrives for Altcoins at Important Levels 🚨 Key Indicators Reveal Alt Season is Imminent ⏳
The Dog Days Are Over 🐶 Volume Arrives for Altcoins at Important Levels 🚨 Key Indicators Reveal Alt Season is Imminent ⏳
The Dog Days Are Over - August 15th, 2024 is setting up to be one of the most significant dates of the year🚨 It’s decision time, if the time confluence from past alt seasons line up then we should..
1The Dog Days Are Over - August 15th, 2024 is setting up to be one of the most significant dates of the year. THIS IS IT!! THIS IS THE MOMENT WE HAVE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR 🚨 In this report we will outline why.
It’s decision time, if the time confluence from past alt season lines up then we should have confirmation this week. ⏳
All eyes are on the Russel 2000, The Saftey Trade (btc.d+eth.d+usdt.d+usdc.d), Bitcoin.d itself, and last but not least the DXY. This is major confluence and the exact recipe we need for alt season to happen. 🍻.
First, we want to remind you of this comparison chart in the previous report highlighting the safety trade (btc.d) from 2018 overlayed on the current safety trade in 2024 (btc.d+eth.d+usdt.d+usdc.d). From a timing perspective, we are even farther along now, if history repeats this pattern should provide the confirmation we need this week to know if we will get an alt-season run-up before the first-rate cuts and the election.
But First What Are the Dog Days?
As the summer winds down, the crypto markets are often characterized by what’s known as the "Dog Days of Summer"—a period marked by low trading volumes, sluggish price action, and a general lack of excitement. This quiet phase, which usually spans the mid-summer months, often leads to complacency among investors. However, as history has shown, the transition from summer to fall and winter can bring a dramatic shift in market dynamics. Right now Bitcoin is consolidating at 60k while sentiment is in ‘extreme fear’. In all previous alt seasons, extreme fear always tends to precede parabolic rises and catch the bulk of market participants offside. In reality, the market is just washing out overleveraged players and resetting funding rates which also tends to mark bottoms and sometimes even bullish reversals. this is as good of a setup as any for a bullish reversal given sentiment and funding rates.
In previous years, we've seen the crypto markets come alive after the summer doldrums, with significant rallies and the onset of alt seasons that have caught many off guard. This year is no different and even arguably more bullish with the rate cuts and the election on the horizon. As we approach mid-August 2024, all signs are pointing to a similar pivotal moment where the markets could quickly reverse from the summer chopsolidation to give investors an exciting and explosive end to the year.
If you have seen the recent note posted, you are aware that we have selected August 15th as a significant date to circle on your calendar which could mark the start of alt season. BUT, for us to officially confirm we are entering said alt season we need to review these 4 charts below so you can also understand the path to get there and also a few secret bonus hints the market has given us that might have already shown its hand. Let’s jump in below 👇
Key Market Indicators to Watch
1. Russel 2000:
The Russel 2000 index, often seen as a barometer for risk appetite in the broader market, is approaching a critical juncture. A breakout here could signal a shift in investor sentiment, paving the way for a new wave of capital into riskier assets like altcoins. Notice the 2 large green volume bars after the scare last week on Monday. To us, this shows the rotation from Magnificent 7 stocks to low caps is underway and investors are going ‘risk on’. Risk on is also a key indicator that alt season is here so if we officially go risk on we can expect altcoins to follow suit with Russel 2000 and breakingout together. You can see in this chart that Aug 15th could be the breakout date, lets look for a big green volume candle on this date to confirm this.
2. The Safety Trade (BTC Dominance + ETH Dominance + USDT Dominance + USDC Dominance):
The Safety Trade metric is a composite of Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D), Ethereum dominance (ETH.D), and the dominance of stablecoins (USDT.D + USDC.D). This measure provides insight into market sentiment—whether investors are playing it safe with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins, or if they’re willing to take on more risk with altcoins. A decrease in the Safety Trade indicates that capital might be rotating out of these safe-haven assets into higher-risk altcoins, a necessary condition for an alt season. Looking at the volume candles red candles are good for altcoins signaling a rotation from Btc, Eth and Stablecoins to more speculative and risky altcoins. Yet again another sign that alt season is near, notice also Aug 15th again is a significant date to watch, lets look for a big red volume candle here to confirm alts are gearing up for a parabolic move after getting beat up all summer.
3. Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D):
Bitcoin dominance itself is a critical metric. A sharp decline in BTC.D typically precedes a major alt season, as investors move out of Bitcoin and into altcoins. The current setup suggests that a break below key support levels in BTC.D could trigger a surge in altcoin prices, leading to a full-blown alt season. Yet again, Aug 15th stands out as the potential date where a huge red candle could ignite the spark we need for alt season.
4. The US Dollar Index (DXY):
The DXY, which measures the strength of the US dollar against a basket of other currencies, is also at a crucial point. A weakening DXY often correlates with stronger risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. If the DXY begins to slide, this could further fuel the rotation into altcoins, as investors seek higher returns in a depreciating dollar environment. Aug 15th yet again marks a potential reversal point for the DXY. We expect a pump into this date and dump after paving the way for alt season.
Bonus Hint: Sui Chart Showing Market’s Hand? + How to pick the right alts
Is the Sui chart showing the market’s hand? We think so, it has all the indications of a bottom being in given the large green volume bars after the capitulation last Monday on Aug 5th. When picking altcoins the best tip we can give is to make sure the coins you pick have higher green volume bars than red volume bars after a capitulation event. For example, let’s compare Rose (Oasis Network) & Render 👇 In this situation you would want to pick Render over Rose because it showed more strength after last week’s capitulation given the high demand indicated by taller green volume bars. Also, make sure to change your candles to 4 hr timeframe if you are having trouble performing this analysis on the daily timeframe. Please also don’t hesitate to ask questions, we are always happy to help subscribers try to pick winners. Hope this helps.
Bonus Hint #2: Tether CEO Paolo Adrino Tweets ‘115’ Cryptically 👀
Bonus Hint #3: Helpful indicator from GCR on how to know how far into an alt season you are:
See - Full Tweet Here
The Timing Confluence and Why It Matters
The timing of this potential alt season is no coincidence. Historical analysis of crypto market cycles indicates that August is a month of significant confluence. Multiple cycles, including those from 15-16 & 17-18 cycles, are all converging this month. This confluence increases the likelihood that we are on the brink of a major market shift. 🐂
Conclusion: Decision Time ⏳
The next few days are critical. If the timing confluence holds, we could even see confirmation of an alt season by the end of the week, with definitive signs by the end of the month. All eyes should be on the key indicators—the Russel 2000, the Safety Trade, Bitcoin dominance, and the DXY. This confluence is the exact recipe needed for a major alt season to take off.
Prepare accordingly; the Dog Days are over, and alt season might just be upon us 🍻
As always, STAY BULLISH MY FRIENDS and CHEERS
We will keep you updated all week, make sure you are following
on Substack and Twitter (@1995Research).*Disclaimer - This is not investment advice, this is only for education/entertainment purposes.