Cycle Theory Timing Confluence, Will Dinosaur Coins (XRP, ADA & LTC) Wake Up and Show the Markets Hand?
Our previous report outlined how the current market is following the 2014-2018 cycle the closest. The chart below illustrates this to a tee, we can see that we are following a very similar cycle..
1Our previous report outlined how the current market is following the 2014-2018 cycle the closest. The chart below illustrates this to a tee, we can see that we are following a very similar cycle and if this theory were to play out we should get confirmation in the next week or so. The chart below overlays the 2014-2018 cycle with our current cycle, and you can see we are quickly approaching an inflection point. If we continue to mimic the 2017 cycle, we could see confirmation of alt season as soon as this week and by September 3rd at the latest.
Take another look at the chart above, and zoom in specifically on the October 11th, 2023 dotted line. You will notice that altcoins broke out a mere few days after and using this fractal has been one of the most lucrative insights for me personally in this cycle so far from a timing perspective. This fractal personally helped me nail the bottom back in early Oct 2023 when I bought $Fet for .22 and $Inj for $7. If history rhymes then we may be able to use this same fractal to forecast when altcoins could start another parabolic rise.
Now, let’s shift our attention to the chart below that is zoomed in on Bitcoin’s current price action in relation to 2017 right before we got that parabolic rise that sent the whole market soaring. This is the inflection point that we are referencing, you can see that we even had confluence with this fractal on the most recent 33% drawdown that happened earlier this month (Aug 5th). Yet again another data point to validate the idea that we are indeed following the 2014-2018 cycle the closest. So will it continue? It has been for over 1220 days, but what historical indicators could we look for that may give us an even higher degree of conviction that we are indeed on the precipice of ‘risk on’ and therefore alt season as soon as this week..
Could the answer lie within the Dino coins, coins like XRP (Ripple), ADA (Cardano)?
Will these coins start to wake up and show the markets hand? Historically this has been the case, especially in the lead-up to the 2017 altcoin rally.
$XRP (Ripple)
These coins were the stars of alt season back in 2017 and as we sit here today they are some of the most hated coins because they have provided lackluster performance since that parabolic rise back in 2017. However, if we are using the 2017-2018 alt coin bull run as context these coins gave an early indication that a parabolic rally was right around the corner for the entire market before Bitcoin even broke out itself. So, given this historical precedent let’s use the same logic and apply it to these coins once again. This analysis will help us analyze if history is indeed repeating itself and if we are on the cusp of an epic risk on a rally across all markets. Based on the timing of cycle theory it took 1023 days from the start of the 2014 cycle to April of 2017 before XRP gave the early signal that it was alt season. If we apply the same timeframe to the current cycle the date of expansion would be tomorrow August 27th for both Litecoin and XRP.
Now take a look at the Litecoin chart with XRP overlayed below.
Litecoin overlayed with XRP
So if Litecoin doesn’t make a move tomorrow is this idea invalidated? Not necessarily, this would just indicate we have surpassed the time elapsed from the previous cycles and that we are currently experiencing the longest cycle ever! Something that we have no historical precedent for. However, this was one of those early indicator back in 2017 that showed the markets hand that risk on was coming before Bitcoin broke out into new all-time highs itself shortly after. All of this to say, keep an eye on XRP and LTC this week, as historically those breaking out have been an early indicator that Bitcoin was about to break past all-time highs soon and bring the entire market with it.
$ADA - Cardano
The same analysis we performed for XRP and Litecoin can be applied to ADA (Cardano), Cardano is one of the most hated assets at the moment and has become a meme due to its lack of performance. this sentiment and general hatred towards ADA could indicate it could have it’s time to shine soon. This is what a parabolic rally could look like for ADA if the market decided to mimic the 2017 bullrun which is has done for 1022 days so far. Time is ticking and we should have our answer very soon, so keep these all on your watchlist.
2017 Saftey Trade (BTC.d) Overlayed on current Saftey Trade (BTC.d+Eth.d+Usdt.d+Usdc.d)
We have the EXACT confluence we need to get a similar style bull run heading into the end of this year that we did back in 2017. All we need is the Russel 2000 to lead the way and the DXY continuing to break down these two elements will pave the way for the rotation from safer assets like BTC, ETH, and Stablecoins to more risky/speculative assets like altcoins.
We will keep you updated all week, make sure you are following
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*Disclaimer - This is not investment advice, this is only for education/entertainment purposes. We are not financial advisors, Investing in Crypto is risky and you could lose all your money.